Social distancing merely stabilized COVID-19 in the US.
Identifieur interne : 000074 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000073; suivant : 000075Social distancing merely stabilized COVID-19 in the US.
Auteurs : Aaron B. Wagner [États-Unis] ; Elaine L. Hill ; Sean E. Ryan ; Ziteng Sun [États-Unis] ; Grace Deng ; Sourbh Bhadane [États-Unis] ; Victor Hernandez Martinez ; Peter Wu ; Dongmei Li ; Ajay Anand ; Jayadev Acharya [États-Unis] ; David S. MattesonSource :
- Stat (International Statistical Institute) [ 2049-1573 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Social distancing measures have been imposed across the US in order to stem the spread of COVID-19. We quantify the reduction in doubling rate, by state, that is associated with this intervention. Using the earlier of K-12 school closures and restaurant closures, by state, to define the start of the intervention, and considering daily confirmed cases through April 23rd, 2020, we find that social distancing is associated with a statistically-significant (p < 0.01) reduction in the doubling rate for all states except for Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota, when controlling for false discovery, with the doubling rate averaged across the states falling from 0.302 (0.285, 0.320) days-1 to 0.010 (-0.007, 0.028) days-1. However, we do not find that social distancing has made the spread subcritical. Instead, social distancing has merely stabilized the spread of the disease. We provide an illustration of our findings for each state, including estimates of the effective reproduction number, R, both with and without social distancing. We also discuss the policy implications of our findings.
DOI: 10.1002/sta4.302
PubMed: 32837718
PubMed Central: PMC7404665
Affiliations:
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Ryan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Ziteng" sort="Sun, Ziteng" uniqKey="Sun Z" first="Ziteng" last="Sun">Ziteng Sun</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Ithaca (New York)</settlement><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Cornell</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deng, Grace" sort="Deng, Grace" uniqKey="Deng G" first="Grace" last="Deng">Grace Deng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bhadane, Sourbh" sort="Bhadane, Sourbh" uniqKey="Bhadane S" first="Sourbh" last="Bhadane">Sourbh Bhadane</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Ithaca (New York)</settlement><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Cornell</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Martinez, Victor Hernandez" sort="Martinez, Victor Hernandez" uniqKey="Martinez V" first="Victor Hernandez" last="Martinez">Victor Hernandez Martinez</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Economics University of Rochester.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Economics University of Rochester.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Peter" sort="Wu, Peter" uniqKey="Wu P" first="Peter" last="Wu">Peter Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Dongmei" sort="Li, Dongmei" uniqKey="Li D" first="Dongmei" last="Li">Dongmei Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Rochester Medical Center.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">University of Rochester Medical Center</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anand, Ajay" sort="Anand, Ajay" uniqKey="Anand A" first="Ajay" last="Anand">Ajay Anand</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Goergen Institute for Data Science, University of Rochester.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">University of Rochester</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Acharya, Jayadev" sort="Acharya, Jayadev" uniqKey="Acharya J" first="Jayadev" last="Acharya">Jayadev Acharya</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Ithaca (New York)</settlement><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Cornell</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Matteson, David S" sort="Matteson, David S" uniqKey="Matteson D" first="David S" last="Matteson">David S. Matteson</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32837718</idno><idno type="pmid">32837718</idno><idno type="doi">10.1002/sta4.302</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7404665</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000140</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000140</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000140</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000140</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000140</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Social distancing merely stabilized COVID-19 in the US.</title><author><name sortKey="Wagner, Aaron B" sort="Wagner, Aaron B" uniqKey="Wagner A" first="Aaron B" last="Wagner">Aaron B. Wagner</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Ithaca (New York)</settlement><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Cornell</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hill, Elaine L" sort="Hill, Elaine L" uniqKey="Hill E" first="Elaine L" last="Hill">Elaine L. Hill</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Public Health Sciences University of Rochester Medical Center.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Public Health Sciences University of Rochester Medical Center.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ryan, Sean E" sort="Ryan, Sean E" uniqKey="Ryan S" first="Sean E" last="Ryan">Sean E. Ryan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Ziteng" sort="Sun, Ziteng" uniqKey="Sun Z" first="Ziteng" last="Sun">Ziteng Sun</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Ithaca (New York)</settlement><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Cornell</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deng, Grace" sort="Deng, Grace" uniqKey="Deng G" first="Grace" last="Deng">Grace Deng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bhadane, Sourbh" sort="Bhadane, Sourbh" uniqKey="Bhadane S" first="Sourbh" last="Bhadane">Sourbh Bhadane</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Ithaca (New York)</settlement><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Cornell</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Martinez, Victor Hernandez" sort="Martinez, Victor Hernandez" uniqKey="Martinez V" first="Victor Hernandez" last="Martinez">Victor Hernandez Martinez</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Economics University of Rochester.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Economics University of Rochester.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Peter" sort="Wu, Peter" uniqKey="Wu P" first="Peter" last="Wu">Peter Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Dongmei" sort="Li, Dongmei" uniqKey="Li D" first="Dongmei" last="Li">Dongmei Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Rochester Medical Center.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">University of Rochester Medical Center</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anand, Ajay" sort="Anand, Ajay" uniqKey="Anand A" first="Ajay" last="Anand">Ajay Anand</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Goergen Institute for Data Science, University of Rochester.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">University of Rochester</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Acharya, Jayadev" sort="Acharya, Jayadev" uniqKey="Acharya J" first="Jayadev" last="Acharya">Jayadev Acharya</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Ithaca (New York)</settlement><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Cornell</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Matteson, David S" sort="Matteson, David S" uniqKey="Matteson D" first="David S" last="Matteson">David S. Matteson</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Stat (International Statistical Institute)</title><idno type="ISSN">2049-1573</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Social distancing measures have been imposed across the US in order to stem the spread of COVID-19. We quantify the reduction in doubling rate, by state, that is associated with this intervention. Using the earlier of K-12 school closures and restaurant closures, by state, to define the start of the intervention, and considering daily confirmed cases through April 23rd, 2020, we find that social distancing is associated with a statistically-significant (p < 0.01) reduction in the doubling rate for all states except for Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota, when controlling for false discovery, with the doubling rate averaged across the states falling from 0.302 (0.285, 0.320) days<sup>-1</sup> to 0.010 (-0.007, 0.028) days<sup>-1</sup>. However, we do not find that social distancing has made the spread subcritical. Instead, social distancing has merely stabilized the spread of the disease. We provide an illustration of our findings for each state, including estimates of the effective reproduction number, <i>R</i>, both with and without social distancing. We also discuss the policy implications of our findings.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32837718</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2049-1573</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Jul</Month><Day>13</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Stat (International Statistical Institute)</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Stat (Int Stat Inst)</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Social distancing merely stabilized COVID-19 in the US.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e302</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1002/sta4.302</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Social distancing measures have been imposed across the US in order to stem the spread of COVID-19. We quantify the reduction in doubling rate, by state, that is associated with this intervention. Using the earlier of K-12 school closures and restaurant closures, by state, to define the start of the intervention, and considering daily confirmed cases through April 23rd, 2020, we find that social distancing is associated with a statistically-significant (p < 0.01) reduction in the doubling rate for all states except for Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota, when controlling for false discovery, with the doubling rate averaged across the states falling from 0.302 (0.285, 0.320) days<sup>-1</sup> to 0.010 (-0.007, 0.028) days<sup>-1</sup>. However, we do not find that social distancing has made the spread subcritical. Instead, social distancing has merely stabilized the spread of the disease. We provide an illustration of our findings for each state, including estimates of the effective reproduction number, <i>R</i>, both with and without social distancing. We also discuss the policy implications of our findings.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wagner</LastName><ForeName>Aaron B</ForeName><Initials>AB</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9127-0089</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hill</LastName><ForeName>Elaine L</ForeName><Initials>EL</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Public Health Sciences University of Rochester Medical Center.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ryan</LastName><ForeName>Sean E</ForeName><Initials>SE</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics Lancaster University.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sun</LastName><ForeName>Ziteng</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Deng</LastName><ForeName>Grace</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bhadane</LastName><ForeName>Sourbh</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Martinez</LastName><ForeName>Victor Hernandez</ForeName><Initials>VH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Economics University of Rochester.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Peter</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Dongmei</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clinical and Translational Science Institute, University of Rochester Medical Center.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Anand</LastName><ForeName>Ajay</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Goergen Institute for Data Science, University of Rochester.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Acharya</LastName><ForeName>Jayadev</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cornell University.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Matteson</LastName><ForeName>David S</ForeName><Initials>DS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Statistics and Data Science Cornell University.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>13</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Stat (Int Stat Inst)</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101661793</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2049-1573</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID‐19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">changepoint</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">interrupted time‐series</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">reproduction number</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">social distancing</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>11</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>08</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>28</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32837718</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1002/sta4.302</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">STA4302</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7404665</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
<ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Stat (Int Stat Inst). 2020 Jul 13;:e302</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32837718</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>État de New York</li></region><settlement><li>Ithaca (New York)</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université Cornell</li></orgName></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Anand, Ajay" sort="Anand, Ajay" uniqKey="Anand A" first="Ajay" last="Anand">Ajay Anand</name><name sortKey="Deng, Grace" sort="Deng, Grace" uniqKey="Deng G" first="Grace" last="Deng">Grace Deng</name><name sortKey="Hill, Elaine L" sort="Hill, Elaine L" uniqKey="Hill E" first="Elaine L" last="Hill">Elaine L. Hill</name><name sortKey="Li, Dongmei" sort="Li, Dongmei" uniqKey="Li D" first="Dongmei" last="Li">Dongmei Li</name><name sortKey="Martinez, Victor Hernandez" sort="Martinez, Victor Hernandez" uniqKey="Martinez V" first="Victor Hernandez" last="Martinez">Victor Hernandez Martinez</name><name sortKey="Matteson, David S" sort="Matteson, David S" uniqKey="Matteson D" first="David S" last="Matteson">David S. Matteson</name><name sortKey="Ryan, Sean E" sort="Ryan, Sean E" uniqKey="Ryan S" first="Sean E" last="Ryan">Sean E. Ryan</name><name sortKey="Wu, Peter" sort="Wu, Peter" uniqKey="Wu P" first="Peter" last="Wu">Peter Wu</name></noCountry><country name="États-Unis"><region name="État de New York"><name sortKey="Wagner, Aaron B" sort="Wagner, Aaron B" uniqKey="Wagner A" first="Aaron B" last="Wagner">Aaron B. Wagner</name></region><name sortKey="Acharya, Jayadev" sort="Acharya, Jayadev" uniqKey="Acharya J" first="Jayadev" last="Acharya">Jayadev Acharya</name><name sortKey="Bhadane, Sourbh" sort="Bhadane, Sourbh" uniqKey="Bhadane S" first="Sourbh" last="Bhadane">Sourbh Bhadane</name><name sortKey="Sun, Ziteng" sort="Sun, Ziteng" uniqKey="Sun Z" first="Ziteng" last="Sun">Ziteng Sun</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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